PHILADELPHIA – Based on expectations and the first two games, this World Series should be a good one and a close one. The Phillies and the Yankees appear to be two closely matched teams that could very likely win as many games against each other as they would lose.

If the Series should wind up at three wins each after six games, then, it would seem to be unfair to have the seventh game determine the winner of the Series, especially since one team, the Yankees, would have homefield advantage, courtesy of Commissioner Bud Selig and Fox TV.

You know about that gimmick, right? The Yankees got homefield advantage because the American League won the All-Star game, as if there’s any relevance of an exhibition game to baseball’s ultimate series.

There has to be a better way to determine the winner, and I have a thought of how it could be done. Let the number of times Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Howard strike out be the deciding factor. Whichever player strikes out more, his team loses. You might think it’s crazy, but it has more to do with winning and losing than the All-Star game.

Based on the first two games, the strikeout frequency of each team’s most fearsome hitter is the development that stands out. They have struck out at an alarming rate, each six times. Howard at least has two hits, both first-game doubles. Rodriguez has no hits in eight at-bats.

Rodriguez had erupted from his post-season shell in the first two series, division and league, stroking 14 hits in 32 at-bats (.438), slamming 5 home runs and driving in 12 runs. Howard had 11 hits in 31 at-bats (.355), hit two home runs and knocked in 14 runs. Rodriguez struck out 5 times in 9 games, Howard 8 times in 9 games.

But in the first two games of the World Series, it’s been whiff, whiff, whiff. Both managers attributed the developments to good execution by the pitching, not poor efforts by the hitters.

“You can’t expect guys to hit a home run every day and to get two hits every day,” Joe Girardi of the Yankees said on Friday’s off-day. “I mean, you make your pitches, in most cases you’ve got a pretty good chance to get guys out.”

Asked if there was an explanation for the hitters’ stunning turnaround, the Phillies’ Charlie Manuel said, “Yeah, to me that’s pretty easy to answer: That guy standing out on the mound. He’s got something to do with that, too. Basically that’s what baseball is all about, too.

“Baseball, I have said it over and over, if you stop and think about it, in a lot of ways, baseball is a failure game, and that’s what you talk about when a guy averages three hits out of ten at‑bats or 30 hits out of 100 at‑bats. He’s a .300 hitter, and that’s being successful and that’s being a great hitter in the game. That pitcher has got something to do with that.

“You’re trying to hit anywhere from a 90 to a 95, 97 mile‑an‑hour fastball, and you’re trying to hit a slider that’s probably 85, 86, breaking hard down, and you’re trying to take a round bat and hit that round ball, trying to square it up. That can be hard.”

On the other hand, a hitter might not “square it up” – that’s the new fad term in baseball – all of the time, but what’s wrong with making mediocre contact and grounding out or flying out?

Big strikeout batters like Howard and Mark Reynolds of Arizona say they know they’re going to make outs and don’t care how they do it. Some people say they could make more productive outs by making contact, but their managers basically say they don’t want them to alter their aggressive approach to hitting and possibly affect their hitting.

Rodriguez and Howard aren’t the first good hitters to be shut down in the World Series. Opposing teams and pitchers focus on the good hitters, trying to make sure they don’t beat them and being willing to take their chances with lesser hitters. If Melky Cabrera beats a team, the manager takes solace in the fact that “at least A-Rod didn’t beat us.”

Advance scouts are critical in how managers plot how to pitch to good hitters.

“Our scouts do a good job,” Manuel said. “Our advance scouts have been very good. They were good last post-season, and they’re good this year, too. They do a tremendous job. They spend a lot of time and they study the teams and they’ve given us good reports.”

Girardi made another point about pitching.

“I think that in most instances good pitching can shut down good hitting, and mediocre pitching can’t always shut down mediocre hitting,” he said. “You look at both these lineups; both these lineups are very good, and the pitching on both sides is very good, and they’ve been two well‑pitched games.  It’s usually what you see in playoff baseball. And the clubs that get to this point usually do a lot of things right and are able to shut other clubs down.”

It stands to reason that teams that reach the World Series have good pitching. The pitchers can execute their pitches better and have a chance to be more successful against good hitters than pitchers on losing teams.

Nobody ever looks good striking out, but Rodriguez and Howard have looked particularly bad striking out. They often have looked like they were fooled by the pitches they missed or took for strikes. Each struck out looking twice in Game 2.

Girardi, for one, believes his guy will show up before the World Series is over. “I know he’ll bounce back,” the manager said after Game 2. “Obviously you want him to continue on the torrid pace that he was on, but he’ll bounce back, and we’ll get it going with him in Philly.”

No one would expect a manager to talk or think any differently. Manuel feels the same way about Howard or he wouldn’t keep him in the lineup. There’s no chance, of course, of Howard ever coming out of the lineup.

Howard struck out 186 times during the regular season. He missed only two games. Last year Howard struck out 199 times for the second successive season and played all 162 games. Rodriguez’s career high for strikeouts is 139, a total he attained in 2004 and matched in 2005.

In the post-season, before this year Rodriguez had struck out 38 times in 39 games. This year he has struck out 11 times in 11 games. Howard struck out 23 times in 17 post-season games before this year. This post-season he has struck out 14 times in 11 games.

Based on the past, Rodriguez would seem to have the edge on Howard, meaning Howard should strike out more times than Rodriguez. If that happens and the Series is tied after six games, the Yankees should be declared the winners with Rodriguez striking a blow for the New Yorkers.