Consider this possible development: Joey Votto, the Cincinnati Reds’ first baseman, doesn’t make the National League All-Star team but is voted the league’s most valuable player.

A 26-year-old Canadian, Votto has been the N.L.’s No. 1 hitter this season and has been the primary reason the Reds have been one of the five most surprising teams of the year. They have been that along with the Padres, the Rangers, the Braves and the Mets.

Votto leads the league in slugging (.599) and on-base (.419) percentages, total bases (173) and home runs (21). He is also in the top 5 in batting average (.316), runs scored (56) and runs batted in (59).

“Joey Votto was on his way last year until he missed almost six weeks with personal problems,” Dusty Baker, the Reds’ manager, said. “He can hit. He can really hit.”

Baseball fans across the country have been slow to recognize Votto’s hitting prowess and proper place among N.L. first basemen. As a result, Votto finished fifth in the fan voting behind Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Troy Glaus and Prince Fielder.

N.L. manager Charlie Manuel selected Howard, his Phillies’ first baseman, as a reserve, and Adrian Gonzalez of San Diego gained a spot via the players’ vote. Votto’s remaining chance to make the team was in the on-line voting for the final roster spot.

The Reds, however, care more about how Votto performs on the field than how he performs on-line. The Reds, who lead the league in offense (runs, home runs, batting average, slugging), need Votto’s bat to remain productive if they are to outlast the St. Louis Cardinals, who had been expected to dominate the N.L. Central.

After a mediocre first month the Reds have established themselves as serious contenders. Since they supplanted the Cardinals in first place May 16, the Reds (through Wednesday) have been in first place 30 days, the Cardinals 13 days, and they have been tied 10 days.

Asked if it was accurate to label the Reds a surprise, Baker said, “I think that’s a fair assessment. We haven’t had a winning season in nine years and we’re getting better. We saw that last year.”

Baker cited the good health of Votto, third baseman Scott Rolen and right fielder Jay Bruce as one of the reasons for the Reds’ emergence as a contender.

But he said, “Probably the most significant development has been our defense. It was something we stressed and worked on in spring training. Joey Votto especially worked on his defense.”

Pitching has played its part, too, in the surprisingly developments, the manager said, “especially when Leake wasn’t even on the radar.”

Baker referred to Mike Leake, the rookie right-hander, whom the Reds selected as the eighth player in last year’s draft. Unlike Stephen Strasburg with the Washington Nationals, Leake headed directly to the majors without stopping in the minors. He became a member if the Reds’ rotation at the start of the season and has responded with a 6-1 record and a 3.38 earned run average in 16 starts.

Another surprisingly good member of the pitching staff is in the bullpen. “We knew he was good but we didn’t know he was this good,” Baker said of Arthur Rhodes. The 40-year-old reliever, in his second season with the Reds, has a 1.06 e.r.a. and has allowed less than one baserunner per inning in 38 games.

Outstanding relief pitching, so rare today, has been, to a great extent, behind the Padres’ surprising effort this season. Since the first two weeks of the season, the Padres have been in first place in the N.L. West every day except for five days and have shown no signs of weakening.

The team’s relief corps has a 2.78 e.r.a., half a run lower than the next lowest, and has held opposing hitters to a .213 batting average, 12 points below the next lowest average.

Don’t overlook the Padres’ starters, though. They also lead the league with a 3.29 e.r.a.

Pitching is critical to the Padres because their offense is one of the league’s least productive. But with starters like Mat Latos (9-4, 2.62), Clayton Richard (6-4, 3.00) and Jon Garland (8-5, 3.24) getting help from such relievers as Heath Bell (4-0, 1.72, 23 of 26 saves), Luke Gregerson (2.45) and Mike Adams (2.20), the Padres have reduced their need for scoring many runs.

The Braves have also benefited from strong relief pitching. Their relievers are second to the Padres in e.r.a., 3.25, and opponents’ batting average, .225, but have a better won-lost record, 18-7 to 16-9.

The Braves did not start the season in a way that would surprise anyone. In mid-May they did not even have a .500 record. But since May 9 (through Wednesday) they have a 37-17 record, best in the league and a stretch that has taken them from last place, six games behind the Phillies, to first place, six games ahead of the Phillies.

It may be that manager Bobby Cox saved his best for last. He has said that this is his last year as the Braves’ manager, but it may turn out to be his best managing job.

The Mets, after Wednesday’s games, were three games ahead of the Phillies but three games behind the Braves. Nevertheless they have surprised their critics, who gave them no chance to contend, if compete, this season.

When Carlos Beltran had knee surgery in the spring, those critics cried “here they go again” with injuries. But Angel Pagan has been such a good replacement for Beltran that Mets’ fans and observers are asking what the Mets will do when Beltran comes back next week.

The Mets weren’t expected to have enough starting pitching to get anywhere, but who knew about Jonathan Niese, R.A. Dickey and Hisanori Takahashi? A strong comeback year from David Wright has also been significant.

The fifth surprising team, the Rangers, have to hold off the Angels for another half of a season, and that may be a lot to ask. But the Rangers’ signing of Vladimir Guerrero as a free agent after he had spent the previous six seasons with the Angels was more than symbolic.

Guerrero has joined Josh Hamilton as a potent one-two punch. Hamilton was hitting .342 with 21 home runs and 62 r.b.i., Guerrero .330 with 19 homers and 72 r.b.i.

Both players were elected to start in the All-Star game, unlike the Reds’ Votto, who has to await the outcome of the online vote to learn if he would be on the N.L. team.

If he were not on the N.L. squad, though, it would not hurt his chances of being the N.L. most valuable player. Nor would he be the first to get the award in a non-All-Star season.

Only three years ago Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies was not an All-Star but the m.v.p. The year before that it happened in the A.L. with Justin Morneau of the Twins. They are only the most recent. Others include Chipper Jones, Kirk Gibson, Willie Stargell, Dave Parker, Juan Gonzalez and Robin Yount.

Gibson, curiously enough, was never an All-Star.