PITCHERS IN DEMAND; HITTERS ON THE BENCH
Sunday, December 27th, 2015As teams wrap up their business for 2015 and head into the new year, it seems that the hot stove, ignited ever so briefly during the winter meetings two weeks ago, has lain mostly dormant ever since.
Although the ace-level free agent pitchers have all selected their new teams, the market for hitters has barely budged, save a few transactions from the two Chicago clubs.
The Cubs continued their collection of the best talent in baseball by poaching outfielder Jason Heyward and second baseman Ben Zobrist for less money than they were offered elsewhere, and the White Sox revamped their infield with trades for Todd Frazier and Brett Lawrie, the former in a notable three-team deal that included several top prospects.
But outside Chicago, splurges for position players—either with money or prospects—have been nearly nonexistent, as the crop of available batters remains robust with a supply that outstrips the demand.
Of the 26 free agents who have signed contracts worth $10 million or more (total) this offseason, only five are position players, per numbers tabulated by Spotrac (and with the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera, whose contract is curiously misstated on that site).
Heyward, Zobrist and Daniel Murphy are the only position players to sign for eight figures annually—10 starting pitchers, though, have received such a contract, and lefties Scott Kazmir and Wei-Yin Chen figure to join that bunch soon.
This imbalance marks a reversal from the recent trend by which the top free agent hitters have signed early in the offseason.
Last year, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez each joined the Red Sox before Thanksgiving. A year earlier, Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury signed their eight-figure deals in early December, with Shin-Soo Choo matching them on Dec. 21. In 2012, it was Josh Hamilton and Melvin—nee B.J.—Upton signing in the first half of December. In 2011, that was Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes; in 2010, Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford did the same.
But this year, the market has stalled since Heyward’s signing, as teams are free to explore their options given the wealth of talent available.
In the outfield alone, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, and Alex Gordon all expect to command contracts that reach upwards of $100 million. A tier below those All-Stars, Dexter Fowler, Gerardo Parra, and Denard Span could each fill an outfield hole capably, and Austin Jackson and Marlon Byrd could make for useful platoon bats for a savvy team.
And the usual suspects with the financial might to sign the top free agents have expressed little rumored interest: The Yankees and Dodgers own fully stocked outfields, and the Cubs and Red Sox already made their moves in signing Heyward and Chris Young—the position player version—respectively.
Dollars have flooded the pitcher market, though, as teams both rich and not have made sizable payments to upgrade their rotations. But the speed at which available pitchers have signed has left teams with World Series aspirations but lingering rotation holes nearly bereft of options.
That’s bad news for the Dodgers, who have yet to find a replacement for the departed Zack Greinke. Los Angeles tried to fill its rotation with the Mariners’ Hisashi Iwakuma, but the Japanese pitcher returned to Seattle after failing his physical with the Dodgers. As it stands, the Dodger starters behind Clayton Kershaw are either injury-prone (Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu) or unproven (Mike Bolsinger, Carlos Frias, Joe Wieland), and the team’s best bet at this point might be to package a group of prospects in a trade for a top-tier pitcher.
In their search for another trusted arm, the Dodgers might end up overpaying like the Cardinals. After missing out on David Price and losing John Lackey to the rival Cubs, St. Louis arrived at an $80 million agreement for Mike Leake, a perfectly serviceable pitcher who has hovered around league average for the duration of his career.
Is Leake really much better than Chris Young—the pitcher version—who signed for a tidy $11.5 million spread over two years with the Royals?
For teams in need of help elsewhere on the diamond, though, the search process may extend for another month or more as teams can take their time negotiating from a position of strength. The American League Central division may be particularly active given those teams’ needs.
Kansas City lost Alex Rios and Alex Gordon—according to reports from earlier this week, the lifetime Royal will not return next year due to contract demands that surpass the Royals’ price range—to free agency but can select from a glut of options to fill its now-vacant corner outfield slots. A versatile defensive force such as Parra would mesh nicely with the Kansas City ethos.
The Indians will play without All-Star Michael Brantley for at least the season’s first month due to the leftfielder’s torn labrum. With centerfield already a question mark for the Indians, Cleveland signed speedster Rajai Davis to a one-year deal, but the team may find solace in adding another cheap, thus-far-forgotten free agent in the outfield.
And other teams in the division may be the ultimate destinations for some of the top remaining outfielders. Might the Tigers bring back Cespdes, or the White Sox, linked in rumors to Gordon, continue their offseason offensive overhaul by plugging another slugger into the middle of their lineup?
Outside the AL Central, expect two teams to consider adding an outfielder in the coming weeks.
Despite boasting one of the best infields in baseball, the Giants could use improvements at two outfield slots to round out their lineup. The team already devoted more than $200 million to pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija this month, so a pair of modest signings could serve San Francisco well.
And in New York, where the Mets seek to replace the half-season dynamo that was Cespedes in Queens, the team could use another right-handed bat to complement entrenched starters Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto. Perhaps Byrd would look sharp in blue and orange, or, if the team isn’t set on Juan Lagares as an everyday centerfielder, Fowler would make more sense.
But just because those players are still available, don’t expect teams to rush to sign anyone. After all, the World Series ended nearly two months ago, and teams haven’t been in a hurry to sign position players yet.