LOOK OUT, HERE COME MORE WILD CARDS
Sunday, August 14th, 2011With six weeks left in the season, five of baseball’s six divisions have legitimate races for the division championships. That kind of frequency doesn’t happen every year, but Major League Baseball is poised to make sure it never happens.
As much as division races have been diluted by the existence of the wild card in each league, they will soon be diluted even more by the creation of even more wild cards, almost certainly one in each league.
“It’s a concept I like,” Commissioner Bud Selig said Friday about the wild-card plan that is under discussion with the intention of implementing it for next season.
The addition of wild-card teams to the post-season and the new format of the playoffs have been topics of discussion in negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. It is on the bargaining agenda because the union has to agree to the new format, both in terms of the number of teams and the adoption of any new rounds of the playoffs.
The participants in the talks are not talking about them because they have agreed to keep them confidential, and believe it or not, they have maintained the confidentiality and the secrecy of their talks. How boring.
But I have learned this much pertaining to the wild-card discussion. They have had extensive discussions on the subject and have discussed details of a prospective format, but neither side has put forth a proposal with a specific plan.
What that means is they are serious about adding teams to the post-season. The commissioner favors it, and the players want it.
Critical in the commissioner’s position is the input he has received from the 14-man committee he has established to scrutinize all on-field phases of the game and recommend changes.
Committee members – managers, executives, owners – are barred by Selig from discussing their deliberations, but a person familiar with developments indicated Saturday that the committee favors the addition of one wild card in each league with that team playing the other wild card in a one-game playoff to advance to the second round of the post-season.
A three-game wild-card playoff was discussed, the person said, “but they didn’t find it as appealing. It doesn’t have the drama or the sex appeal as one game. One game would be unique. It’s a dramatic opportunity to have one of these teams advance when they otherwise wouldn’t have that opportunity.”
A baseball official agreed that one game would be exciting, but he said, “Some teams wouldn’t like to see the 162-game season come down to one game.”
On the other hand, the person who related committee deliberations pointed out that a one-game wild-card playoff would be like a one-game playoff for a division championship.
Yes, I said to him, but the teams in a division playoff had 162 games in which to win the championship. “So did a wild-card team but didn’t,” he responded.
These are the issues that are being discussed with the union and are not final.
The commissioner at one time assured us that the number of wild-card teams would stay at one in each league and would not be increased.
“We kept expanding and eventually you have to add some playoff teams,” Selig said, explaining his change in thinking. And of the wild card itself, he added, “It’s worked out tremendously, better than I thought it would.”
Including better financially. Selig’s interest in wild cards increased proportionately with his understanding of the economic value of additional teams in the playoffs:
More teams in contention for playoff spots, better late-season attendance for contending teams, additional post-season attendance at premium prices, more television money for rights to the extra games.
More money for the players, too. They share in gate proceeds and maybe could even get additional bonus provisions for being named most valuable player of the extra game or series between wild cards.
But a person familiar with the players’ thinking said they have a different reason for wanting to add wild cards. Players, he said, think that adding teams to the playoffs would reduce a wild card’s chances of getting to and winning the World Series.
The wild-card teams would have to use their best pitchers against each other and therefore not have them available early in the Division Series. Scheduling and travel requirements could also work against the wild cards.
From that standpoint alone, the players’ thinking makes sense. But there’s another way to look at it. Under the existing format, 25 percent of the post-season teams (two of eight) are wild cards. If another wild card is added to each league’s playoff, 40 percent of the post-season teams (four of ten) would be wild cards.
In other words, despite the obvious pitching problems, would the addition of wild cards enhance the chances of the World Series winner being a wild card based on simple math?
It’s a question to ponder along with many others, but the commissioner is prepared to go forward with a wild-card plan of some sort no matter the answers.
A major league official described Selig as being excited about the addition of wild cards but added, “He has said he doesn’t want to play in November.”
That’s another reason why the wild-card round will be a do-or-die game, loser go home.
“We’re still thinking about it, how to do it,” Selig said. “There are talks that keep going back and forth. It’s just a concept I like.”
Selig likes it so much he is prepared to abandon division races in favor of wild cards. For all I know, he may be prepared to abandon divisions as well, creating two 15-team leagues. But that’s another story; let’s stick to wild cards.
At the end of play Saturday night, these were the contenders in five of the six divisions. Forget the National League East. The Phillies are just hanging out awaiting the playoffs. The numbers here are the teams’ won-lost records with number of games behind the leaders:
| A.L. East | A.L. Central | A.L. West | ||||||
| Red Sox | 73-45 | Tigers | 64-55 | Rangers | 68-52 | |||
| Yankees | 72-46 | 1 | Indians | 60-57 | 3 | Angels | 65-55 | 3 |
| White Sox | 59-60 | 5
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| N.L. East | N.L. Central | N.L. West | ||||||
| Phillies | 77-41 | Brewers | 69-51 | D’backs | 67-53 | |||
| Cardinals | 64-56 | 5
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Giants | 65-55 | 2 | |||
These were the wild-card standings:
| American League | National League | ||||
| Yankees | 72-46 | Braves | 70-50 | ||
| Angels | 65-55 | 8 | Giants | 65-55 | 5 |
| Rays | 64-55 | 8 ½ | Cardinals | 64-56 | 6 |
If there were no wild cards, all, or most, of these five divisions would be hotly contested. With wild cards, there are four, and there’s barely a wild-card race. If there were two wild cards in each league, there would be a race in each league.
Wild-card advocates would say those races would be enough to maintain interest and excitement. I say nonsense. If the Red Sox and the Yankees were playing for something meaningful now, that would be exciting. I suppose if the new format makes it meaningful for them to play for first place, it would be an improvement over the current system.
On the other hand, I don’t care to have the door opened to more wild cards because on the other side of that door is a slippery slope that could lead to worse things, like even more playoff teams.
Look at the NBA and the NHL. They allow so many teams into their playoffs that they become a second season and render the first season meaningless. Teams with losing records get into their playoffs.
The baseball season, whether 154 or 162 games, is unique and should remain that way.
A friend who knows baseball as well as anyone replied cynically when I asked him what he thought of the addition of wild cards.
“There will be realignment and additional wild cards,” he said. “Eventually, there will probably be eight two-team divisions, with eight division-winners and four wild-cards making the playoffs.”
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READ THIS LINE: R Z E P C Z Y N S K I
In case you didn’t see it, the Human Eye Chart has changed locations. Marc Rzepczynski was traded
by Toronto to St. Louis, where he has been active out of the bullpen.
The left-hander, who turns 26 in two weeks, has relieved seven times for the Cardinals, allowing only one earned run in six and a third innings.
Rzepczynski was one of four players the Cardinals acquired July 27 for four players, including outfielder Colby Rasmus. The Cardinals also received starting pitcher Edwin Jackson.
The Cardinals didn’t need an eye chart, but they did need a left-handed reliever. They liked Rzepczynski because with Toronto this season he held left-handed hitters to a .159 batting average and .247 on-base and .102 slugging percentages
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NEO-NUMBERS MAY HAVE TO BE OLD NUMBERS
Maybe much could change in the last six weeks of the season to change this outlook, but from the looks of things now, the neo-number guys are going to have a tough time pulling an American League Cy Young award winner out of their computerized hat.
Last year they came up with Felix Hernandez, whose 13-12 record belied everything the award had ever meant. The neo-number guys told us that wins don’t mean anything, that it’s the last thing on which to judge a pitcher. Forget Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens, Catfish Hunter, Jim Palmer, Ferguson Jenkins, Robin Roberts and all those other guys.
This season, however, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia and Jered Weaver are not only the leading winners in the American League, but they are also the leaders in many other pitching categories like earned run average, opponents’ batting average, strikeouts and innings pitched.
My goodness, Verlander even has the No. 1 WAR ranking among A.L. pitchers. What’s a voter to do? He might have to become instantly old and wise.
Which reminds me that in last Monday’s Boston Globe, Dan Shaughnessy had a terrific column about Carlos Slim, the world’s wealthiest man and a great and knowledgeable baseball fan, who was at Fenway Park for the series finale between the Red Sox and the Yankees. That same day The New York Times’ baseball column was about WAR.

The well-traveled Dotel wasn’t finished traveling. He signed with team No. 11, the Blue Jays, as a free agent just before the end of last year. The Blue Jays made it an even dozen for Dotel a few days before the trading deadline, sending him to the Cardinals.

The New York Yankees’ third baseman is the lightning rod for all of the ills baseball perceives it has. The latest is the supermarket tabloid report that Rodriguez played in an illegal high-stakes poker game.