The beauty of the long baseball season, I have come to appreciate over many years, is that so much can happen over 162 games. The peril of the long baseball season, I have also learned over many years, is that so much can happen over 162 games.
Only 30 percent of the season has been played, and we have seen the effects of what some people refer to as the baseball marathon.
The Orioles and the Indians, for example, spent a substantial segment of the first two months in first place but slipped out before the end of the second month. They obviously have more than enough time to reclaim their division leads, but both teams might have already used up their quota of first-place time.
For some teams, the season has already lasted too long. The Twins, the Padres and the Cubs fall into that category. While earlier on, they might have had reason to hope for better times ahead, they have played enough games – about 50 – to know things don’t figure to get much better.
For the Phillies, on the other hand, the season can’t run long enough. They need time to get their ailing stars healthy. First baseman Ryan Howard and second baseman Chase Utley have yet to play this season, and Roy Halladay, their No. 1 starting pitcher, will miss six to eight weeks with a strained shoulder muscle.
Though able to stay within sight of first place – they have been no more distant from first place than 6 ½ games – the Phillies have seldom had a winning record and they began Wednesday’s games in last place in the National League East for the 25th consecutive day.
The leader in that same division for most of the season has been the Nationals, who had been expected to be improved but had not been mistaken for a contender. Are they, with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, a contender? About a third into the season skeptics are awaiting what they feel is the coming collapse.
What about the Atlanta Braves? Like the Nationals, they appeared to be overachieving until a recent eight-game losing streak knocked them out of first and all the way to the Phillies’ level. In fact, those teams were tied for fourth/fifth place the other day.
The Braves’ skid, which could not have come as a surprise because they were due for a setback of sorts, enabled the Miami Marlins to catch up. The Marlins went from 6 ½ games out of first to 1 ½ out. With 70 percent of the season remaining, the Marlins figure to be up and back a few times.
The Mets have been better than expected, but the season is long enough that they will have plenty of time to find their likely level.
For the Cubs, the season must seem interminable already. They ended a 12-game losing streak earlier this week, but when the streak began May 14, they already had a 15-20 record. They followed the losing streak by sweeping a three-game series from the Padres, the only N.L. team with a worse record.
If the Padres play the rest of the season at the same poor pace they played to that point, they will finish their version of the marathon with a 53-109 record, 18 games worse than their 2011 record.
The Padres and the Cubs don’t figure to be able to take advantage of the long season, but what about the Indians and the Orioles?
The Indians led the American League Central for five weeks, slipping out of first place the other day as the Chicago White Sox were in the process of winning eight in a row and 12 of 15.
When the season began, there were greater expectations for the White Sox than the Indians, but the Detroit Tigers were the team expected to lead the division. The Tigers, however, have stumbled along, failing to create a winning record since May 10 (16-15) and being as many as 6 games out of first.
The long season, however, could benefit the Tigers. One of these days the veteran manager Jim Leyland will get his players headed in the right direction.
Mike Scioscia has finally been able to do that in Anaheim. When the season was still in April, the Angels were already 9 games behind division-leading Texas. More recently, the Angels won eight in a row and sliced the Rangers’ lead over them to a more manageable 5 ½ games.
With Josh Hamilton having a tremendously productive season, the Rangers are looking good enough to win the A.L. pennant a third successive season, but the awakened Angels promise to make trouble for them in the next four months.
That would be TRouble as in TRumbo (Mark) and TRout (Mike) in addition to an Awakened Albert Pujols.
Nothing has changed to dilute what promises to be the most congested division race. The Orioles might have expended the energy they had, but they could still be a factor in the outcome of the A.L. East race.
Before the games on the last day of May, the Orioles and the Rays were tied for first for the fifth consecutive day, the Yankees were a game and a half behind, the Blue Jays 2 games and the Red Sox, a season-high 2 games over .500, 2 ½ out.
The N.L. East was similarly bunched. The Nationals led the Marlins by half a game, the Mets by 1 1/2 games, the Braves by 2 and the Phillies, like the Red Sox 2 games over .500, 3 games behind.
With four months to play, those divisions promise to be a steady scramble, most likely to the end. But because there always seems to be time to overcome large deficits, other divisions could also be affected.
While the Reds and the Cardinals slug it out for the top spot in the N.L. Central, the defending champion Brewers could belatedly shrug off the loss of Prince Fielder and regain their equilibrium and their place in the standings.
The Giants, who have whittled their division deficit to 5 ½ games, have lots of time to make further inroads on the Dodgers, whose best player, center fielder Matt Kemp, faces a second stint on the disabled list with an injured hamstring.