Twenty or so years ago, the question arose in two different stages: Who will be the next baseball commissioner? Major League Baseball twice had a search committee purportedly looking for a commissioner to replace Fay Vincent, but it never came up with a candidate or candidates whom it could present to the owners for a vote.

No finalists surfaced, but not for a lack of trying. There were no finalists because the interim, or acting, commissioner, both of which labels he denied holding, wanted no finalists. Bud Selig wanted the job for himself, and anyone who had designs on it would be wise to keep those thoughts and desires to himself.

Now, finally, the question can be answered, at least it can be after the owners meeting in Baltimore next Thursday (Aug. 14). If one of the candidates gets 23 votes he will be the answer to the question. If no one gets 23 votes – a three-fourths majority – the owners will keep voting, potentially adding new candidates, until someone gets the necessary number.

The candidates are Rob Manfred, MLB’s chief operating officer and Selig’s choice; Tom Werner, chairman of the Boston Red Sox and candidate of Jerry Reinsdorf, chairman of the Chicago White Sox and one of the most dangerous owners in sports, and Tim Brosnan, MLB’s executive vice president for business, apparently no one’s favorite candidate as far as I can determine.

Based on information I have obtained in the last few days, the most recent unofficial count gives Manfred 20 votes and Werner five. The rest of the owners are undecided or uncommitted.

This is the unconfirmed breakdown of the current count:

• Manfred: Yankees, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Mets, Marlins, Phillies, Cubs, Reds, Pirates, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Padres.
• Werner: White Sox, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics, Brewers.
• Uncommitted/undecided: Blue Jays, Rays, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies

Given these vote totals, Manfred would require three additional votes to become Commissioner while Werner would need three additional votes to block Manfred from being elected.

Some of those teams in the last group are there because of the Reinsdorf strategy and his determination to block Manfred. Stuart Sternberg of Tampa Bay was a self-submitted candidate but didn’t make the final cut. However, Reinsdorf could use him in the event the vote goes beyond the first ballot. Paul Beeston, Toronto’s president and C.E.O. wasn’t a candidate, but Reinsdorf could make him one if it serves his purpose. The same goes for Derrick Hall, Arizona’s president and C.E.O.

Reinsdorf’s position in this pursuit of a new commissioner is peculiar though not unpredictable.

No two owners have ever been closer than Selig and Reinsdorf. They were so close that baseball people often saw Reinsdorf as Rasputin to Selig’s Czar Nicholas II.

Selig has always bristled at the suggestion that Reinsdorf has exercised undue influence over him.

But now, as Selig prepares to stroll into retirement after a 22-year tenure, anticipating a smooth transition to his successor, Reinsdorf fires a shot across his bow. Selig had set up Manfred to be the new commissioner and, according to some baseball people, had even staked out a small spot for himself, as eminence grise, or senior adviser.

Maybe that’s what Reinsdorf didn’t like, that his old buddy Bud would still be around.

What, on the other hand, does Reinsdorf have against Manfred that he would wreck Selig’s retirement party to get what he wants?

Reinsdorf, I am told, doesn’t think Manfred has what it takes to be a good commissioner. That was not his position earlier this year when, as chairman of the Chicago Bulls, he voted for Adam Silver, David Stern’s deputy, to be Stern’s successor as NBA commissioner.

The White Sox owner, I am also told, fears that Manfred would continue what he feels has been Selig’s practice of too much secrecy and too little transparency.

What Reinsdorf sees as Manfred’s biggest weakness is he thinks the C.O.O. would be too soft on labor. We’ve seen this show before – 20 years ago – but Reinsdorf is intent on staging a revival, only this time with a happy ending for the owners.

In 1992 Reinsdorf, with Selig, led a move to oust Fay Vincent as commissioner so he wouldn’t get in their way when the owners went to war with the players in 1994. Two decades after the owners emerged from that war bloodied and battered, Selig readily acknowledges the folly of that war, proclaims that peace is better than war and points to $9 billion in annual industry revenue as proof.

Reinsdorf, however, believes that the union, with a new, inexperienced leader, Tony Clark, can be crushed and a payroll cap put into the owners’ pocket. For such new folly Manfred could miss out on the job Selig prepared for him.

As the old saying goes, with friends like Reinsdorf, who needs enemies?

What about the other candidates?

Brosnan has to receive some credit for the revenue growth, but he would very likely not be a finalist if Bob Bowman accepted an invitation to be considered for the job. Bowman is highly regarded by the owners for the job he has done as C.E.O. of MLB Advanced Media. Bowman, declined an interview, saying he preferred to stay in his current position. Brosnan not long ago had a run-in with Selig that resulted in a reduction of his duties.

As a candidate opposing Selig’s candidate, Werner has put himself in an interesting position. Principal owner of the San Diego Padres from 1990 to 1994, Werner did a pretty poor job. However, Selig liked him and put him together with John Henry when they both were interested in buying the Red Sox in 2002. Now Werner is helping to enable Reinsdorf to fight Selig over his choice to succeed him. Only one person from out of baseball was interviewed by MLB’s succession committee. That was Rick Levin, former president of Yale University. Earlier this summer the New York Post’s Page 6 and The New York Times wrote of baseball’s owners that Robert Iger, Chairman and C.E.O. of The Walt Disney Company, was gaining their support. Iger was not interviewed.