The New York Mets probably never imagined that they would have company so soon, but if misery loves company, the Detroit Tigers have provided it. The Mets, for sure, have been miserable since they squandered a 7-game lead with 17 games to play in 2007. They apparently liked their misery so much that they repeated their act of misery in 2008, losing a 3-game lead with 17 games to play.
Now the 2009 Tigers can join together in a rousing chorus of “Meet the Mets.” They followed the Mets’ pattern of collapse perfectly; only some of the numbers were different. The Tigers’ collapse began a little earlier, and it contained more games than the Mets’ crash.
But where the Mets had their lead (7 games and 3 games) Sept. 12 with 17 games to play in each of their collapses, the Tigers had their 7-game lead Sept. 6 with 27 to play. The Mets had a 5-12 record, then 7-10; the Tigers finished their season 11-16, with loss No. 16 the 12-inning affair with the Minnesota Twins in a one-game playoff.
The Mets didn’t have a playoff with Philadelphia in either instance. They didn’t have a chance to correct their mistakes. But the Tigers’ squandered their chance as well as two leads (3-1, 5-4) in their playoff for the playoffs, and they are not in the post-season, not after having held sole possession of first place for 146 consecutive days of the 183-day season, from May 10 through Oct. 2.
The Twins, on the other hand, are in the playoffs after having won 19 of their last 27 games, including the game with the Tigers. The Twins have an intriguing history with division races in recent seasons.
Last year they swept a three-game series from Chicago in the final week of the season and replaced the White Sox in first, only to fall into a tie with the White Sox by losing two of the last three games. The White Sox won a playoff, 1-0, on a Jim Thome home run.
In 2006 the Tigers led the division for 130 consecutive days, from May 21 through Sept. 27. The Twins never spent a day in first place, trailing by as many as 12 games three days after the All-Star game, until they tied the Tigers with three games to play. They lost the first two of those games but remained tied, then beat the White Sox in the last game while the Tigers lost to Kansas City. The Twins became the only team to win a division title while spending only one day in first place alone.
The Twins, who had a 68-68 record a month ago, are the hot team in the playoffs, and the hot teams often win them. But they also could be so exhausted from getting there that they will have little left with which to challenge the Yankees, who won all seven games that the teams played during the season.
Ron Gardenhire did a great job managing the Twins this year, good enough to be the manager of the year, but a magician he isn’t. He can’t pull out a magic wand, wave it and produce a young Bert Blyleven, Frank Viola and Brad Radke. And Johan Santana doesn’t pitch for the Twins anymore.
But are the Twins in worse shape than most of the teams in the National League playoffs?
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been mediocre at best for the last two and a half months, or 40 percent of the season, surviving only barely in their quest for the N.L. West title. Until they clinched first place on the next-to-last day of the season, the Dodgers had played losing baseball for 65 games, winning 32 and losing 33.
The Central champion St. Louis Cardinals won only a third of their final 21 games, winning 7, losing 14, but they had the benefit of a weak division, in which the Chicago Cubs forgot that they were supposed to win it.
Having benefited from the Mets’ collapses the previous two seasons, the Philadelphia Phillies thought they would find out what it felt like, but they didn’t quite duplicate the Mets’ efforts. They lost 8 of their last 13 games, and in a broader sample, they had a 20-19 record before winning the season finale.
The only team that hasn’t struggled is the wild card, the Colorado Rockies. The only time the Rockies faltered since Jim Tracy replaced Clint Hurdle as manager May 29 was the final two games of the season, which they lost to the Dodgers and missed a chance to snatch the division title.
Only two years ago the Rockies defined momentum, winning 14 of their last 15 games and clinching the wild card on the lone day that they lost. The streak catapulted them from fourth to second, and they just kept going, sweeping Philadelphia and Arizona in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
This year they had an 18-28 record when Tracy replaced Hurdle as manager. They lost four of the first six games under Tracy, then took off and had a 72-38 record the rest of the season. The .655 winning percentage of that record translates to 106 victories over the course of a full season.
The Rockies also had an 18-8 run from Sept. 4 through Oct. 2 that almost made them the division champions.
For the teams that staggered into the post-season, they may want to recall the experience of the 1990 Cincinnati Reds, who went wire to wire in first place, first day to last. On June 3 of that season the Reds had a 33-12 record. The rest of the season, however, they had a 58-59 record.
They nevertheless prevailed in the post-season, beating Pittsburgh four games to two in the league series and sweeping Oakland in the World Series.
As for this year’s playoffs, I can safely say, Chicken Little, that the sky is not falling. Contrary to late-season cries of baseball’s critics, all of the playoff teams are not among the teams with the highest payrolls.
The top four payroll teams in the American League are not in the A.L. playoffs, as those critics feared. The Twins are in, and they are No. 24 in the payroll standings. That they have to play the $201 million No. 1 Yankees with their $65 million payroll is immaterial. They are in the playoffs, and the No. 4 Tigers are not.
