When my vacation reliever, Zachary Kram, was 5 years old, I was taken by his knowledge of Major League Baseball so in the spring of 2000 I asked him to predict the division winners for that season. I don’t remember all of his picks, but one stood out. He picked the White Sox to win the American League Central title.
I don’t recall whom I picked to win that division, but I know it wasn’t the White Sox. (Zachary reminds me I picked the Indians, who finished 5 games back.) No one else said the White Sox would win the division. But the White Sox finished first, and I have paid attention ever since to Zachary’s predictions.
In fact, Zachary has questioned whether I have taken his predictions for my own, but I would rather be grossly wrong on my own than substitute his views for my own. As it develops, our picks are not too dissimilar this time around. We agree on seven of the eight playoff teams, differing only on the A.L. West winner (Angels for him, Mariners for me).
Most interesting we both have the Red Sox in the World Series. However, I have them winning it, beating the Braves in the last games of Bobby Cox’s great career, and he has them losing to the Cardinals.
Here are Zachary’s picks with his comments on each team:
A.L. EAST
Boston – Their bullpen could very well be the difference in this tight division.
New York (WC) – They need help getting from the starters to Rivera.
Tampa – If Price, Niemann, and Davis perform well, they will sneak into the playoffs.
Baltimore – They will ruin some hopes in September and surprise by beating playoff contenders.
Toronto – They just plain stink. Playing in the best division in baseball doesn’t help.
A.L. CENTRAL
Chicago – The top four in their rotation is very good. Now can they just get some bats?
Minnesota – While the loss of Nathan does hurt, their starting pitchers are the real X-factor in getting this team back to the playoffs.
Detroit – They’re relying on too many unproven youngsters. Behind Verlander and Porcello, there just isn’t enough, starters or bullpen.
Cleveland – They could surprise if their young players continue to improve and Sizemore and Hafner bounce back.
Kansas City – Save for Greinke and Soria, nobody on this team scares anyone. Acquiring Kendall and Betancourt were strange moves indeed.
A.L. WEST
Anaheim – While they don’t have true stars, they still have good depth and a strong pitching staff.
Seattle – Milton Bradley is the cleanup hitter. That is a sobering thought.
Texas – Once again, not enough pitching leaves them on the outside looking in on the playoffs.
Oakland – The biggest question on the season for them is how soon and to whom Sheets is traded.
N.L. EAST
Philadelphia – Halladay will finally get to the postseason and, facing the Nats and Mets rather than the Yankees, Sox, and Rays, could have a career year.
Atlanta (WC) – Their rotation, top to bottom, is the best in the division.
Florida – They can never be counted out, but their rotation, especially the bullpen, just has too many issues for them to be considered true contenders.
Washington – The only thing people are concerned for around here is how soon Strasburg will be called up.
New York – Can Santana pitch every day? Because that’s their only chance this season.
N.L. CENTRAL
St. Louis – They really need to underperform to lose this weak division.
Chicago – Unfortunately, Marmol will once again prove why he isn’t made out to be a closer.
Milwaukee – Their lack of starting pitching behind Gallardo (Randy Wolf will be troubled to replicate his last season in Los Angeles) will compensate for their potent offense.
Cincinnati – Maybe next year, they’ll be mature enough to contend.
Houston – Aging stars Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt will just continue to fade. Meanwhile, Wandy Rodriguez will quietly emerge as the team’s new ace.
Pittsburgh – An eighteenth straight losing season approaches. On the plus side, Andrew McCutchen will not be traded (this year).
N.L. WEST
Colorado – If Jeff Francis returns to form, they will have their best rotation in years, propelling them to a playoff spot–this time, no giant comeback will be necessary.
San Francisco – They have shown in the past that pitching can only get them so far.
Los Angeles – Vicente Padilla is their Opening Day starter. That is another sobering thought.
Arizona – They need Brandon Webb to return to his brilliance to have a chance in this tough division.
San Diego – Their biggest question, too, is when and to whom will Adrian Gonzalez be traded?
WORLD SERIES
St. Louis over Boston – While the trio of Beckett, Lester, and Lackey is indeed wonderful, they just cannot match Carpenter and Wainwright. Dave Duncan will work his usual magic to get quality starts from other forgotten pitchers (maybe Brad Penny?). St. Louis wins the series 4-2.